100.0% average title probability
Algeria Ligue 1 race map
Algeria Ligue 1 Season Predictor 2025-2026
A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.
0.0% average title probability
100.0% average relegation risk
Gap score 20.0 between the two models
Race Storylines
Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.
Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.
These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.
Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.
Title Race
The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Title | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MC Alger | 1 | 65 | 69.1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| JS Saoura | 2 | 55 | 55.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CR Belouizdad | 3 | 52 | 54.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MC Oran | 4 | 49 | 49.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JS Kabylie | 5 | 45 | 46.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olympique Akbou | 6 | 45 | 45.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Top 4 Battle
Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.
| Team | Pos | Avg Finish | Avg Top 4 | Avg Title | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MC Alger | 1 | 1.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.8 |
| JS Saoura | 2 | 2.5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| CR Belouizdad | 3 | 2.5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | -0.5 |
| MC Oran | 4 | 4.0 | 97.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| USM Alger | 11 | 10.0 | 2.2% | 0.0% | -1.9 |
| JS Kabylie | 5 | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.5 |
| Olympique Akbou | 6 | 6.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| CS Constantine | 7 | 8.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Relegation Watch
The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Bottom Finish | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Bayadh | 16 | 17 | 16.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Mostaganem | 15 | 19 | 15.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Paradou AC | 14 | 24 | 14.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MB Rouisset | 13 | 33 | 12.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ASO Chlef | 12 | 34 | 12.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| USM Alger | 11 | 37 | 10.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model Disagreement
The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Aknoun | 9 | 7 | 44.1 | 44.5 | 20.0 |
| Khenchela | 10 | 8 | 42.5 | 43.2 | 20.0 |
| JS Saoura | 3 | 2 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 10.0 |
| CR Belouizdad | 2 | 3 | 54.5 | 54.0 | 10.0 |
| Olympique Akbou | 7 | 6 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 10.0 |
| CS Constantine | 8 | 9 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 10.0 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.
| Match | Date | Race Heat | Home | Draw | Away | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MC Alger vs CR Belouizdad | 23 Aug 2025 | 221.5 | 52.3% | 28.3% | 19.5% | MC Alger: Title 100.0% | CR Belouizdad: Top 4 100.0% |
| USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad | 10 Apr 2026 | 130.9 | 34.0% | 29.9% | 36.2% | USM Alger: Projection 0.0% | CR Belouizdad: Top 4 100.0% |
| MC Alger vs Ben Aknoun | 06 Sep 2025 | 115.0 | 66.7% | 22.4% | 11.0% | MC Alger: Title 100.0% | Ben Aknoun: Projection 0.0% |
| MB Rouisset vs USM Alger | 13 Mar 2026 | 27.2 | 44.5% | 28.2% | 27.4% | MB Rouisset: Projection 0.0% | USM Alger: Projection 0.0% |
| Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger | 09 May 2026 | 25.1 | 49.2% | 25.3% | 25.6% | Ben Aknoun: Projection 0.0% | USM Alger: Projection 0.0% |
| JS Kabylie vs USM Alger | 23 Aug 2025 | 24.0 | 51.5% | 25.7% | 22.9% | JS Kabylie: Projection 0.0% | USM Alger: Projection 0.0% |
| Khenchela vs USM Alger | 28 Apr 2026 | 23.8 | 51.9% | 26.9% | 21.3% | Khenchela: Projection 0.0% | USM Alger: Projection 0.0% |
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.
This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Ligue 1. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.
Simulations
50,000
Remaining Fixtures
7
Goal Model Base
1.35 / 0.91
Form Model Base
1.36 PPG
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Title | Form Title | Goal Top 4 | Form Top 4 | Goal Bottom Finish (15-16) | Form Bottom Finish (15-16) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MC Alger | 65 | 68.7 | 69.5 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | JS Saoura | 55 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 3 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | CR Belouizdad | 52 | 54.5 | 54.0 | 2 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | MC Oran | 49 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 4 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 96.3% | 99.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | JS Kabylie | 45 | 46.5 | 47.0 | 5 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Olympique Akbou | 45 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 7 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | CS Constantine | 43 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 8 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Ben Aknoun | 42 | 44.1 | 44.5 | 9 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | Khenchela | 41 | 42.5 | 43.2 | 10 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | ES Setif | 39 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 11 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | USM Alger | 37 | 43.2 | 41.3 | 10 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | ASO Chlef | 34 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 12 | 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | MB Rouisset | 33 | 34.4 | 34.8 | 13 | 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Paradou AC | 24 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 14 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Mostaganem | 19 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 15 | 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 16 | El Bayadh | 17 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 16 | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Proj G H | Proj G A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2025 | Regular Season - 1 | JS Kabylie vs USM Alger | 42.4% | 28.0% | 29.6% | 1.28 | 1.03 |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Regular Season - 1 | MC Alger vs CR Belouizdad | 42.7% | 33.5% | 23.8% | 1.01 | 0.67 |
| 06 Sep 2025 | Regular Season - 3 | MC Alger vs Ben Aknoun | 59.8% | 24.7% | 15.6% | 1.61 | 0.68 |
| 28 Apr 2026 | Regular Season - 19 | Khenchela vs USM Alger | 39.2% | 31.2% | 29.6% | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| 13 Mar 2026 | Regular Season - 23 | MB Rouisset vs USM Alger | 36.7% | 31.6% | 31.7% | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| 10 Apr 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad | 30.3% | 32.9% | 36.8% | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| 09 May 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger | 36.5% | 27.5% | 36.0% | 1.22 | 1.21 |
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home Form | Away Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2025 | Regular Season - 1 | JS Kabylie vs USM Alger | 60.5% | 23.3% | 16.2% | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Regular Season - 1 | MC Alger vs CR Belouizdad | 61.8% | 23.1% | 15.1% | 1.47 | 1.26 |
| 06 Sep 2025 | Regular Season - 3 | MC Alger vs Ben Aknoun | 73.5% | 20.1% | 6.4% | 1.47 | 0.97 |
| 28 Apr 2026 | Regular Season - 19 | Khenchela vs USM Alger | 64.5% | 22.5% | 13.0% | 1.24 | 0.97 |
| 13 Mar 2026 | Regular Season - 23 | MB Rouisset vs USM Alger | 52.2% | 24.7% | 23.1% | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| 10 Apr 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad | 37.6% | 26.8% | 35.6% | 1.09 | 1.26 |
| 09 May 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger | 61.8% | 23.1% | 15.1% | 1.18 | 0.97 |