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Argentina Liga Profesional race map

Argentina Liga Profesional Season Predictor 2016-2017

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Boca Juniors
100.0% average title probability
Closest Challenger River Plate
0.0% average title probability
Main Danger Team Quilmes
100.0% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Boca Juniors
Gap score 0.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Quilmes 30 25 29.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Aldosivi 29 25 30.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Belgrano Cordoba 28 26 28.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arsenal Sarandi 27 27 27.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarmiento Junin 26 28 26.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Huracan 25 29 25.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Boca Juniors 1 1 63.0 63.0 0.0
River Plate 2 2 56.0 56.0 0.0
Estudiantes L.P. 3 3 56.0 56.0 0.0
Racing Club 4 4 55.0 55.0 0.0
Banfield 5 5 54.0 54.0 0.0
Independiente 6 6 53.0 53.0 0.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga Profesional. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.25 / 1.03
Form Model Base 1.37 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (29-30) Form Bottom Finish (29-30)
1 Boca Juniors 63 63.0 63.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 River Plate 56 56.0 56.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Estudiantes L.P. 56 56.0 56.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Racing Club 55 55.0 55.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Banfield 54 54.0 54.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Independiente 53 53.0 53.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 San Lorenzo 53 53.0 53.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Lanus 50 50.0 50.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Newells Old Boys 49 49.0 49.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Defensa Y Justicia 49 49.0 49.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Colon Santa Fe 49 49.0 49.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Rosario Central 44 44.0 44.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Gimnasia L.P. 43 43.0 43.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Godoy Cruz 43 43.0 43.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Talleres Cordoba 42 42.0 42.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Olimpo Bahia Blanca 38 38.0 38.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Atletico DE Rafaela 37 37.0 37.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 Temperley 37 37.0 37.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 Velez Sarsfield 37 37.0 37.0 19 19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 Patronato 34 34.0 34.0 20 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 Atletico Tucuman 33 33.0 33.0 21 21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 San Martin S.J. 33 33.0 33.0 22 22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23 Union Santa Fe 32 32.0 32.0 23 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 Tigre 31 31.0 31.0 24 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 Huracan 29 29.0 29.0 25 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 Sarmiento Junin 28 28.0 28.0 26 26 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
27 Arsenal Sarandi 27 27.0 27.0 27 27 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
28 Belgrano Cordoba 26 26.0 26.0 28 28 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
29 Aldosivi 25 25.0 25.0 30 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
30 Quilmes 25 25.0 25.0 29 29 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.