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Argentina Liga Profesional race map

Argentina Liga Profesional Season Predictor 2018-2019

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Racing Club
100.0% average title probability
Biggest Model Split Racing Club
Gap score 0.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga Profesional. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.25 / 0.96
Form Model Base 1.34 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (25-26) Form Bottom Finish (25-26)
1 Racing Club 57 57.0 57.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Defensa Y Justicia 53 53.0 53.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Boca Juniors 51 51.0 51.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 River Plate 45 45.0 45.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Atletico Tucuman 42 42.0 42.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Velez Sarsfield 40 40.0 40.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Independiente 38 38.0 38.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Union Santa Fe 36 36.0 36.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Tigre 36 36.0 36.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Huracan 35 35.0 35.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Lanus 34 34.0 34.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Talleres Cordoba 33 33.0 33.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Aldosivi 33 33.0 33.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Godoy Cruz 32 32.0 32.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Newells Old Boys 29 29.0 29.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Banfield 29 29.0 29.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Estudiantes L.P. 29 29.0 29.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 Gimnasia L.P. 29 29.0 29.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 Patronato 26 26.0 26.0 19 19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 Rosario Central 26 26.0 26.0 20 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 San Martin S.J. 25 25.0 25.0 21 21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 Belgrano Cordoba 24 24.0 24.0 22 22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23 San Lorenzo 23 23.0 23.0 23 23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 Colon Santa Fe 23 23.0 23.0 24 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 San Martin Tucuman 23 23.0 23.0 25 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
26 Argentinos JRS 22 22.0 22.0 26 26 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.