100.0% average title probability
Croatia HNL race map
Croatia HNL Season Predictor 2021-2022
A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.
0.0% average title probability
100.0% average relegation risk
Gap score 0.0 between the two models
Race Storylines
Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.
Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.
These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.
Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.
Title Race
The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Title | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 79 | 79.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 72 | 72.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NK Osijek | 3 | 69 | 69.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| HNK Rijeka | 4 | 65 | 65.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 5 | 49 | 49.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| HNK Gorica | 6 | 45 | 45.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Top 4 Battle
Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.
| Team | Pos | Avg Finish | Avg Top 4 | Avg Title | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| NK Osijek | 3 | 3.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| HNK Rijeka | 4 | 4.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 5 | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| HNK Gorica | 6 | 6.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 7 | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Sibenik | 8 | 8.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Relegation Watch
The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Bottom Finish | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 10 | 19 | 10.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Istra 1961 | 9 | 31 | 9.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Sibenik | 8 | 32 | 8.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 7 | 36 | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| HNK Gorica | 6 | 45 | 6.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 5 | 49 | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model Disagreement
The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 79.0 | 79.0 | 0.0 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 0.0 |
| NK Osijek | 3 | 3 | 69.0 | 69.0 | 0.0 |
| HNK Rijeka | 4 | 4 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 0.0 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 5 | 5 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 0.0 |
| HNK Gorica | 6 | 6 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 0.0 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.
No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.
This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for HNL. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.
Simulations
1
Remaining Fixtures
0
Goal Model Base
1.51 / 1.29
Form Model Base
1.38 PPG
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Title | Form Title | Goal Top 4 | Form Top 4 | Goal Bottom Finish (9-10) | Form Bottom Finish (9-10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 79 | 79.0 | 79.0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 72 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 2 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 69 | 69.0 | 69.0 | 3 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 65 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 4 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 49 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 5 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | HNK Gorica | 45 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 6 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 7 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Sibenik | 32 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 8 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | Istra 1961 | 31 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 9 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 10 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 19 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 10 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.