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Ecuador Liga Pro race map

Ecuador Liga Pro Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Closest Challenger Aucas
0.0% average title probability
Main Danger Team Manta FC
100.0% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Aucas
Gap score 23.6 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

5 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

2 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Manta FC 16 14 16.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Delfin SC 15 23 15.0 58.8% 62.2% 55.4%
Orense SC 14 26 14.0 26.7% 21.6% 31.7%
Tecnico Universitario 13 26 13.0 6.8% 6.5% 7.0%
Emelec 12 28 12.5 3.8% 4.7% 2.9%
Mushuc Runa SC 11 28 11.0 2.7% 2.9% 2.4%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Aucas 3 2 47.7 50.1 23.6
Barcelona SC 4 5 46.2 45.2 18.1
Macara 4 3 47.0 48.3 16.9
Independiente del Valle 1 1 70.3 73.4 15.5
LDU de Quito 5 6 45.6 45.0 13.5
Orense SC 14 14 33.5 32.1 10.1

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica 30 Aug 2026 196.8 64.4% 22.1% 13.5% Independiente del Valle: Title 100.0% | Universidad Catolica: Top 4 80.8%
Universidad Catolica vs Manta FC 23 Aug 2026 191.4 76.5% 18.0% 5.6% Universidad Catolica: Top 4 80.8% | Manta FC: Bottom Finish 100.0%
Manta FC vs Aucas 13 Sep 2026 190.9 19.2% 28.6% 52.3% Manta FC: Bottom Finish 100.0% | Aucas: Top 4 69.4%
Independiente del Valle vs Macara 06 Sep 2026 178.4 67.4% 20.2% 12.4% Independiente del Valle: Title 100.0% | Macara: Top 4 63.7%
Macara vs Manta FC 02 Sep 2026 176.5 71.6% 21.3% 7.1% Macara: Top 4 63.7% | Manta FC: Bottom Finish 100.0%
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas 02 Sep 2026 171.0 53.7% 24.7% 21.6% Universidad Catolica: Top 4 80.8% | Aucas: Top 4 69.4%
Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC 16 Aug 2026 168.3 79.0% 16.2% 4.8% Independiente del Valle: Title 100.0% | Delfin SC: Bottom Finish 58.8%
Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica 06 Sep 2026 168.1 31.2% 32.3% 36.6% Delfin SC: Bottom Finish 58.8% | Universidad Catolica: Top 4 80.8%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga Pro. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 59
Goal Model Base 1.23 / 0.95
Form Model Base 1.38 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (15-16) Form Bottom Finish (15-16)
1 Independiente del Valle 55 70.3 73.4 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Aucas 38 47.7 50.1 3 2 0.0% 0.0% 57.6% 81.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Universidad Catolica 36 49.5 48.6 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 84.0% 77.6% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Barcelona SC 35 46.2 45.2 4 5 0.0% 0.0% 47.3% 29.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Macara 35 47.0 48.3 4 3 0.0% 0.0% 55.2% 72.1% 0.0% 0.0%
6 LDU de Quito 35 45.6 45.0 5 6 0.0% 0.0% 38.4% 24.9% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Leones del Norte 32 42.0 42.2 7 8 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Deportivo Cuenca 31 41.2 42.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 5.6% 0.2% 0.0%
9 Libertad 30 39.1 39.6 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2%
10 Guayaquil City FC 28 38.6 39.4 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 0.5%
11 Mushuc Runa SC 28 37.4 36.9 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 2.9% 2.4%
12 Emelec 28 36.2 36.1 13 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.7% 2.9%
13 Tecnico Universitario 26 35.8 35.1 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 6.5% 7.0%
14 Orense SC 26 33.5 32.1 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 31.7%
15 Delfin SC 23 30.4 31.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62.2% 55.4%
16 Manta FC 14 19.6 18.3 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
01 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 23 Universidad Catolica vs Tecnico Universitario 61.3% 22.8% 15.9% 1.78 0.77
02 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 23 Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca 70.0% 18.2% 11.7% 2.21 0.78
02 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 23 Macara vs Guayaquil City FC 50.0% 28.0% 22.0% 1.36 0.80
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Aucas vs Leones del Norte 40.1% 28.9% 31.1% 1.20 1.02
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Barcelona SC vs Macara 46.3% 29.7% 24.0% 1.23 0.79
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Delfin SC vs Orense SC 40.8% 31.7% 27.5% 1.06 0.81
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta FC 54.0% 28.2% 17.8% 1.36 0.65
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec 45.8% 31.9% 22.3% 1.11 0.68
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 LDU de Quito vs Independiente del Valle 25.0% 26.4% 48.6% 0.97 1.46
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Libertad vs Universidad Catolica 32.7% 31.8% 35.4% 0.92 0.97
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC 43.9% 25.4% 30.7% 1.51 1.22
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Aucas vs LDU de Quito 30.4% 29.6% 40.0% 0.97 1.15
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario 39.3% 32.3% 28.3% 1.02 0.81
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad 39.2% 32.4% 28.4% 1.01 0.81
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC 76.0% 16.2% 7.9% 2.29 0.59
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Macara vs Universidad Catolica 37.2% 31.7% 31.2% 1.01 0.90
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Manta FC vs Leones del Norte 24.0% 35.0% 40.9% 0.64 0.94
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Mushuc Runa SC vs Barcelona SC 36.2% 30.6% 33.2% 1.04 0.98
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca 40.7% 27.7% 31.6% 1.28 1.09
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Barcelona SC vs Orense SC 59.1% 24.6% 16.3% 1.62 0.71
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Delfin SC vs Aucas 29.9% 36.1% 34.0% 0.73 0.81
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa SC 40.4% 24.0% 35.6% 1.59 1.48
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 LDU de Quito vs Emelec 51.1% 30.6% 18.3% 1.21 0.60
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle 27.6% 25.2% 47.2% 1.13 1.56
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Libertad vs Macara 38.0% 28.5% 33.5% 1.18 1.09
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Tecnico Universitario vs Guayaquil City FC 40.4% 30.5% 29.1% 1.11 0.90
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Universidad Catolica vs Manta FC 74.9% 17.5% 7.6% 2.11 0.51
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Aucas vs Libertad 43.6% 27.6% 28.8% 1.33 1.02
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Emelec vs Leones del Norte 36.4% 32.1% 31.5% 0.98 0.89
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Guayaquil City FC vs LDU de Quito 27.7% 34.4% 37.8% 0.74 0.92
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica 54.8% 24.2% 21.0% 1.68 0.94
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Manta FC vs Barcelona SC 21.8% 36.5% 41.7% 0.56 0.90
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC 49.8% 29.3% 20.9% 1.27 0.72
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Orense SC vs Macara 31.9% 25.4% 42.7% 1.25 1.49
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca 41.1% 31.3% 27.6% 1.09 0.83
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle 33.7% 27.1% 39.2% 1.18 1.30
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Delfin SC vs Tecnico Universitario 36.5% 36.8% 26.6% 0.82 0.66
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City FC 37.7% 28.6% 33.6% 1.17 1.09
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC 47.8% 26.8% 25.4% 1.43 0.96
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Leones del Norte vs Orense SC 53.7% 25.6% 20.8% 1.55 0.86
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Libertad vs Emelec 53.7% 27.2% 19.1% 1.43 0.73
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Macara vs Manta FC 64.6% 24.5% 10.9% 1.57 0.48
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Universidad Catolica vs Aucas 52.1% 25.2% 22.7% 1.58 0.95
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Aucas vs Barcelona SC 36.6% 30.6% 32.8% 1.05 0.98
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica 25.9% 37.5% 36.6% 0.63 0.81
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad 39.1% 28.2% 32.7% 1.22 1.09
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Emelec vs Manta FC 52.9% 30.8% 16.3% 1.21 0.53
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Independiente del Valle vs Macara 62.5% 19.9% 17.6% 2.16 1.06
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte 39.7% 28.9% 31.4% 1.19 1.02
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Orense SC vs Guayaquil City FC 39.6% 27.0% 33.4% 1.31 1.18
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Tecnico Universitario vs LDU de Quito 29.4% 32.0% 38.6% 0.85 1.02
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Barcelona SC vs Delfin SC 58.4% 29.1% 12.5% 1.30 0.44
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC 41.5% 27.4% 31.1% 1.31 1.10
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 LDU de Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca 43.7% 33.3% 23.0% 1.03 0.66
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Leones del Norte vs Tecnico Universitario 48.3% 30.4% 21.3% 1.20 0.69
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Libertad vs Independiente del Valle 24.2% 23.3% 52.5% 1.14 1.79
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Macara vs Emelec 58.8% 25.3% 15.9% 1.56 0.67
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Manta FC vs Aucas 20.5% 33.4% 46.2% 0.59 1.05
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC 67.3% 18.4% 14.4% 2.29 0.96

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
01 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 23 Universidad Catolica vs Tecnico Universitario 72.3% 20.5% 7.2% 1.22 0.75
02 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 23 Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca 77.6% 18.6% 3.8% 1.62 0.96
02 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 23 Macara vs Guayaquil City FC 67.0% 22.0% 11.1% 1.24 0.92
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Aucas vs Leones del Norte 54.3% 24.4% 21.3% 1.12 1.04
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Barcelona SC vs Macara 48.7% 25.3% 26.1% 1.15 1.15
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Delfin SC vs Orense SC 58.4% 23.7% 17.9% 0.92 0.77
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta FC 70.4% 21.1% 8.5% 0.95 0.54
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec 62.7% 22.9% 14.4% 1.03 0.80
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 LDU de Quito vs Independiente del Valle 13.7% 22.7% 63.6% 1.12 1.73
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Libertad vs Universidad Catolica 54.3% 24.4% 21.4% 1.18 1.10
09 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 24 Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC 50.7% 24.9% 24.4% 0.92 0.89
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Aucas vs LDU de Quito 56.2% 24.1% 19.8% 1.12 1.01
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario 60.9% 23.2% 15.9% 0.95 0.75
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad 50.0% 25.0% 24.9% 1.03 1.01
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC 82.0% 16.2% 1.7% 1.62 0.72
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Macara vs Universidad Catolica 58.1% 23.7% 18.1% 1.24 1.10
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Manta FC vs Leones del Norte 21.8% 24.5% 53.7% 0.61 1.04
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Mushuc Runa SC vs Barcelona SC 53.1% 24.6% 22.4% 0.96 0.90
16 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 25 Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca 36.9% 26.9% 36.2% 0.78 0.96
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Barcelona SC vs Orense SC 69.3% 21.4% 9.3% 1.15 0.77
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Delfin SC vs Aucas 35.2% 26.8% 38.0% 0.92 1.12
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa SC 52.6% 24.7% 22.8% 0.95 0.89
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 LDU de Quito vs Emelec 66.7% 22.0% 11.3% 1.12 0.80
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle 12.6% 22.4% 65.0% 1.09 1.73
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Libertad vs Macara 50.7% 24.9% 24.3% 1.18 1.15
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Tecnico Universitario vs Guayaquil City FC 48.8% 25.2% 26.0% 0.92 0.92
23 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Universidad Catolica vs Manta FC 78.0% 18.4% 3.6% 1.22 0.54
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Aucas vs Libertad 55.8% 24.1% 20.0% 1.12 1.01
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Emelec vs Leones del Norte 42.6% 26.1% 31.2% 0.95 1.04
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Guayaquil City FC vs LDU de Quito 50.4% 25.0% 24.6% 1.03 1.01
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica 74.0% 20.0% 6.0% 1.62 1.10
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Manta FC vs Barcelona SC 29.7% 25.9% 44.4% 0.61 0.90
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC 63.2% 22.8% 14.0% 0.96 0.72
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Orense SC vs Macara 25.3% 25.1% 49.6% 0.78 1.15
30 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 27 Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca 46.2% 25.6% 28.2% 0.92 0.96
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle 14.9% 23.0% 62.1% 1.15 1.73
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Delfin SC vs Tecnico Universitario 59.3% 23.5% 17.2% 0.92 0.75
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City FC 50.7% 24.9% 24.3% 0.95 0.92
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC 62.4% 22.9% 14.7% 1.12 0.89
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Leones del Norte vs Orense SC 66.8% 22.0% 11.2% 1.09 0.77
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Libertad vs Emelec 69.2% 21.4% 9.4% 1.18 0.80
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Macara vs Manta FC 78.6% 18.1% 3.3% 1.24 0.54
02 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 28 Universidad Catolica vs Aucas 55.3% 24.2% 20.4% 1.22 1.12
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Aucas vs Barcelona SC 62.2% 23.0% 14.8% 1.12 0.90
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica 36.5% 27.0% 36.5% 0.92 1.10
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad 44.3% 25.9% 29.8% 0.95 1.01
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Emelec vs Manta FC 70.4% 21.1% 8.5% 0.95 0.54
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Independiente del Valle vs Macara 72.3% 20.5% 7.2% 1.62 1.15
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte 43.7% 26.0% 30.3% 0.96 1.04
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Orense SC vs Guayaquil City FC 39.6% 26.6% 33.9% 0.78 0.92
06 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 29 Tecnico Universitario vs LDU de Quito 42.6% 26.1% 31.3% 0.92 1.01
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Barcelona SC vs Delfin SC 70.9% 20.9% 8.1% 1.15 0.72
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC 57.7% 23.8% 18.5% 1.03 0.89
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 LDU de Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca 58.8% 23.6% 17.6% 1.12 0.96
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Leones del Norte vs Tecnico Universitario 67.4% 21.8% 10.7% 1.09 0.75
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Libertad vs Independiente del Valle 16.2% 23.3% 60.4% 1.18 1.73
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Macara vs Emelec 71.6% 20.7% 7.7% 1.24 0.80
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Manta FC vs Aucas 17.9% 23.7% 58.4% 0.61 1.12
13 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 30 Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC 71.8% 20.7% 7.5% 1.22 0.77