Finland Veikkausliiga race map

Finland Veikkausliiga Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Inter Turku
94.7% average title probability
Closest Challenger Turku PS
2.7% average title probability
Main Danger Team FF Jaro
90.3% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split HJK Helsinki
Gap score 20.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

5 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

3 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
Inter Turku 1 35 46.8 94.7% 90.6% 98.7%
Turku PS 4 24 37.9 2.7% 4.5% 0.8%
AC Oulu 3 26 36.0 1.6% 3.0% 0.1%
HJK Helsinki 5 24 34.7 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
KuPS 2 27 35.7 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Lahti 6 21 33.7 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team Pos Avg Finish Avg Top 4 Avg Title Momentum
Inter Turku 1 1.0 100.0% 94.7% +2.2
Turku PS 4 2.0 82.8% 2.7% +0.5
AC Oulu 3 3.5 63.8% 1.6% -1.4
KuPS 2 4.0 57.1% 0.4% +0.5
HJK Helsinki 5 5.0 48.4% 0.5% +1.0
Lahti 6 6.0 35.2% 0.3% +0.6
VPS 7 7.0 8.4% 0.0% +0.1
Gnistan 8 8.0 4.5% 0.0% +0.3

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
FF Jaro 12 8 12.0 90.3% 90.1% 90.4%
SJK 11 11 11.0 60.1% 55.2% 64.9%
Ilves 10 12 10.0 33.8% 33.7% 33.9%
Mariehamn 9 13 9.0 15.6% 20.4% 10.7%
Gnistan 8 19 8.0 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
VPS 7 19 7.0 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
HJK Helsinki 6 4 34.2 35.2 20.0
AC Oulu 3 4 36.7 35.3 15.5
Inter Turku 1 1 45.7 47.9 11.0
Mariehamn 9 9 22.0 22.3 9.7
SJK 11 11 19.0 17.5 9.7
Turku PS 2 2 37.6 38.1 5.5

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
FF Jaro vs Inter Turku 19 Jul 2026 207.2 14.3% 23.4% 62.4% FF Jaro: Bottom Finish 90.3% | Inter Turku: Top 4 100.0%
Inter Turku vs AC Oulu 13 Jun 2026 183.0 57.3% 26.6% 16.2% Inter Turku: Top 4 100.0% | AC Oulu: Top 4 63.8%
Turku PS vs FF Jaro 27 Jun 2026 182.6 78.9% 17.3% 3.9% Turku PS: Top 4 82.8% | FF Jaro: Bottom Finish 90.3%
HJK Helsinki vs Inter Turku 17 Jun 2026 176.3 34.5% 27.4% 38.1% HJK Helsinki: Top 4 48.4% | Inter Turku: Top 4 100.0%
FF Jaro vs SJK 24 Jul 2026 173.6 48.5% 27.0% 24.6% FF Jaro: Bottom Finish 90.3% | SJK: Bottom Finish 60.1%
Inter Turku vs SJK 23 Jun 2026 172.6 72.2% 21.4% 6.4% Inter Turku: Top 4 100.0% | SJK: Bottom Finish 60.1%
SJK vs Turku PS 04 Jul 2026 169.3 32.4% 26.3% 41.3% SJK: Bottom Finish 60.1% | Turku PS: Top 4 82.8%
Turku PS vs AC Oulu 11 Jul 2026 166.4 56.1% 26.5% 17.5% Turku PS: Top 4 82.8% | AC Oulu: Top 4 63.8%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Veikkausliiga. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 44
Goal Model Base 1.4 / 0.99
Form Model Base 1.36 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (11-12) Form Bottom Finish (11-12)
1 Inter Turku 35 45.7 47.9 1 1 90.6% 98.7% 99.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 KuPS 27 35.4 35.9 4 4 0.7% 0.1% 54.7% 59.4% 0.0% 0.0%
3 AC Oulu 26 36.7 35.3 3 4 3.0% 0.1% 71.5% 56.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Turku PS 24 37.6 38.1 2 2 4.5% 0.8% 80.0% 85.5% 0.0% 0.0%
5 HJK Helsinki 24 34.2 35.2 6 4 0.8% 0.2% 43.6% 53.2% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Lahti 21 33.4 34.0 6 6 0.4% 0.1% 35.9% 34.5% 0.0% 0.0%
7 VPS 19 30.0 30.1 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 7.5% 0.2% 0.1%
8 Gnistan 19 29.0 29.3 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0%
9 Mariehamn 13 22.0 22.3 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 10.7%
10 Ilves 12 20.7 20.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.7% 33.9%
11 SJK 11 19.0 17.5 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55.2% 64.9%
12 FF Jaro 8 15.5 15.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 90.1% 90.4%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 Ilves vs Turku PS 29.8% 26.1% 44.1% 1.14 1.45
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 Inter Turku vs AC Oulu 43.2% 32.3% 24.5% 1.07 0.72
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 FF Jaro vs HJK Helsinki 28.3% 27.9% 43.7% 0.99 1.31
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 VPS vs KuPS 30.8% 29.3% 39.9% 0.99 1.17
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 Lahti vs SJK 63.6% 22.8% 13.6% 1.75 0.66
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 Mariehamn vs Gnistan 44.4% 26.1% 29.6% 1.45 1.14
17 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 HJK Helsinki vs Inter Turku 34.9% 28.2% 36.8% 1.14 1.18
17 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 Ilves vs FF Jaro 64.1% 22.2% 13.7% 1.80 0.69
17 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 Turku PS vs KuPS 49.9% 29.8% 20.3% 1.25 0.68
17 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 Gnistan vs Lahti 36.8% 25.8% 37.4% 1.35 1.36
17 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 SJK vs VPS 33.2% 30.9% 35.9% 0.97 1.02
18 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 AC Oulu vs Mariehamn 62.7% 24.2% 13.2% 1.63 0.59
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 KuPS vs Ilves 61.5% 19.8% 18.6% 2.20 1.13
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Lahti vs Turku PS 43.4% 26.9% 29.7% 1.37 1.09
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 VPS vs AC Oulu 27.1% 28.6% 44.3% 0.93 1.27
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Inter Turku vs SJK 64.3% 25.5% 10.2% 1.50 0.42
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 FF Jaro vs Gnistan 34.9% 26.2% 39.0% 1.27 1.36
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki 36.6% 28.9% 34.5% 1.13 1.09
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Ilves vs SJK 50.6% 26.7% 22.7% 1.45 0.88
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 HJK Helsinki vs KuPS 45.3% 27.4% 27.2% 1.36 0.99
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Mariehamn vs Inter Turku 26.6% 28.2% 45.2% 0.93 1.31
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Gnistan vs VPS 35.1% 27.3% 37.7% 1.20 1.26
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Turku PS vs FF Jaro 77.9% 17.0% 5.1% 2.03 0.34
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 AC Oulu vs Lahti 41.8% 33.0% 25.3% 1.02 0.72
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 14 Lahti vs Gnistan 52.9% 23.6% 23.4% 1.74 1.08
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 14 FF Jaro vs Ilves 44.9% 24.2% 30.9% 1.64 1.32
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 14 SJK vs Turku PS 34.2% 26.6% 39.2% 1.22 1.33
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 14 VPS vs Mariehamn 51.6% 26.8% 21.6% 1.45 0.83
10 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 VPS vs SJK 49.8% 28.9% 21.3% 1.30 0.74
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Lahti vs HJK Helsinki 44.2% 27.2% 28.6% 1.36 1.04
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Gnistan vs Mariehamn 60.9% 20.2% 18.8% 2.14 1.11
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Turku PS vs AC Oulu 46.0% 30.8% 23.3% 1.17 0.74
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 HJK Helsinki vs VPS 42.9% 31.1% 26.0% 1.11 0.80
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 AC Oulu vs Gnistan 51.2% 26.6% 22.2% 1.46 0.86
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 SJK vs KuPS 34.4% 27.3% 38.4% 1.18 1.27
19 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 FF Jaro vs Inter Turku 19.5% 25.5% 55.0% 0.81 1.56
20 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Turku PS vs Ilves 70.3% 18.8% 10.9% 2.10 0.69
20 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Mariehamn vs Lahti 36.1% 31.1% 32.8% 1.02 0.95
24 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 FF Jaro vs SJK 46.8% 28.9% 24.3% 1.27 0.83
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Mariehamn vs AC Oulu 31.8% 28.8% 39.4% 1.04 1.19
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 KuPS vs VPS 38.8% 31.0% 30.2% 1.07 0.91
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Ilves vs Lahti 30.9% 28.8% 40.3% 1.02 1.21
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Inter Turku vs Gnistan 56.6% 26.2% 17.2% 1.49 0.69
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 HJK Helsinki vs Turku PS 45.4% 26.8% 27.8% 1.40 1.04

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 Ilves vs Turku PS 31.2% 26.1% 42.7% 0.78 1.05
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 Inter Turku vs AC Oulu 71.3% 20.8% 7.9% 1.44 1.01
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 FF Jaro vs HJK Helsinki 22.0% 24.5% 53.5% 0.67 1.10
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 VPS vs KuPS 35.9% 26.9% 37.2% 0.91 1.10
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 Lahti vs SJK 72.8% 20.4% 6.8% 1.14 0.66
13 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 10 Mariehamn vs Gnistan 50.3% 25.0% 24.7% 0.99 0.97
17 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 HJK Helsinki vs Inter Turku 34.1% 26.6% 39.3% 1.21 1.43
17 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 Ilves vs FF Jaro 63.3% 22.8% 14.0% 0.78 0.54
17 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 Turku PS vs KuPS 61.5% 23.1% 15.4% 1.31 1.10
17 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 Gnistan vs Lahti 49.0% 25.2% 25.8% 1.11 1.11
17 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 SJK vs VPS 30.0% 25.9% 44.0% 0.77 1.06
18 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 AC Oulu vs Mariehamn 67.2% 21.9% 10.9% 1.12 0.79
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 KuPS vs Ilves 74.3% 19.9% 5.8% 1.15 0.62
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Lahti vs Turku PS 54.9% 24.3% 20.8% 1.14 1.05
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 VPS vs AC Oulu 42.7% 26.1% 31.2% 0.91 1.01
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Inter Turku vs SJK 80.1% 17.3% 2.5% 1.44 0.66
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 FF Jaro vs Gnistan 29.3% 25.8% 44.8% 0.67 0.97
23 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki 41.4% 26.3% 32.3% 0.99 1.10
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Ilves vs SJK 56.9% 23.9% 19.1% 0.78 0.66
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 HJK Helsinki vs KuPS 55.6% 24.2% 20.2% 1.21 1.10
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Mariehamn vs Inter Turku 21.7% 24.5% 53.8% 0.99 1.43
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Gnistan vs VPS 52.3% 24.7% 23.0% 1.11 1.06
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Turku PS vs FF Jaro 79.9% 17.5% 2.7% 1.31 0.54
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 AC Oulu vs Lahti 50.0% 25.0% 24.9% 1.12 1.11
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 14 Lahti vs Gnistan 59.3% 23.5% 17.1% 1.14 0.97
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 14 FF Jaro vs Ilves 52.9% 24.6% 22.5% 0.67 0.62
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 14 SJK vs Turku PS 30.6% 26.0% 43.4% 0.77 1.05
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 14 VPS vs Mariehamn 56.7% 24.0% 19.3% 0.91 0.79
10 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 VPS vs SJK 63.9% 22.6% 13.4% 0.91 0.66
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Lahti vs HJK Helsinki 51.5% 24.8% 23.6% 1.14 1.10
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Gnistan vs Mariehamn 66.6% 22.0% 11.3% 1.11 0.79
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Turku PS vs AC Oulu 66.2% 22.1% 11.7% 1.31 1.01
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 HJK Helsinki vs VPS 58.2% 23.7% 18.1% 1.21 1.06
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 AC Oulu vs Gnistan 58.4% 23.7% 17.9% 1.12 0.97
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 SJK vs KuPS 27.4% 25.5% 47.1% 0.77 1.10
19 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 FF Jaro vs Inter Turku 9.0% 21.3% 69.7% 0.67 1.43
20 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Turku PS vs Ilves 78.3% 18.2% 3.4% 1.31 0.62
20 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Mariehamn vs Lahti 41.0% 26.4% 32.6% 0.99 1.11
24 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 FF Jaro vs SJK 50.2% 25.0% 24.8% 0.67 0.66
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Mariehamn vs AC Oulu 48.2% 25.3% 26.5% 0.99 1.01
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 KuPS vs VPS 54.7% 24.3% 21.0% 1.15 1.06
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Ilves vs Lahti 27.7% 25.5% 46.8% 0.78 1.11
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Inter Turku vs Gnistan 72.4% 20.5% 7.1% 1.44 0.97
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 HJK Helsinki vs Turku PS 58.7% 23.6% 17.6% 1.21 1.05