Indonesia Liga 1 race map

Indonesia Liga 1 Season Predictor 2025-2026

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Season:

Title Favorite Pusamania Borneo

100.0% average title probability

Closest Challenger Persib Bandung

0.0% average title probability

Main Danger Team PSBS Biak Numfor

100.0% average relegation risk

Biggest Model Split Persebaya Surabaya

Gap score 1.5 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team	Pos	Pts	Exp Pts	Avg Title	Goal	Form
Pusamania Borneo	1	79	79.0	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Persib Bandung	2	79	79.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Persija	3	71	71.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Persebaya Surabaya	4	58	60.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Malut United	5	53	53.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Bhayangkara FC	6	53	53.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team	Pos	Avg Finish	Avg Top 4	Avg Title	Momentum
Pusamania Borneo	1	1.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0
Persib Bandung	2	2.0	100.0%	0.0%	0.0
Persija	3	3.0	100.0%	0.0%	0.0
Persebaya Surabaya	4	4.0	100.0%	0.0%	+0.3
Malut United	5	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
Bhayangkara FC	6	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
Dewa United	7	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	+0.3
Bali United	8	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team	Pos	Pts	Avg Finish	Avg Bottom Finish	Goal	Form
PSBS Biak Numfor	18	18	18.0	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Semen Padang	17	20	17.0	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Persis Solo	16	34	16.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
PSM Makassar	15	34	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Persepam Madura Utd	14	35	14.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Persijap	13	36	13.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team	Goal Finish	Form Finish	Goal Exp Pts	Form Exp Pts	Gap
Persebaya Surabaya	4	4	60.1	60.4	1.5
Dewa United	5	5	55.0	55.3	1.5
Persik Kediri	12	12	39.7	39.5	1.0
Persijap	13	13	36.6	36.4	1.0
Pusamania Borneo	1	1	79.0	79.0	0.0
Persib Bandung	2	2	79.0	79.0	0.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match	Date	Race Heat	Home	Draw	Away	Why It Matters
Persebaya Surabaya vs Persijap	28 Dec 2025	114.1	68.6%	21.0%	10.5%	Persebaya Surabaya: Top 4 100.0% \| Persijap: Projection 0.0%
Dewa United vs Persik Kediri	07 Feb 2026	15.4	65.7%	21.6%	12.8%	Dewa United: Projection 0.0% \| Persik Kediri: Projection 0.0%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga 1. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000

Remaining Fixtures 2

Goal Model Base 1.58 / 1.22

Form Model Base 1.39 PPG

Model Comparison

#	Team	Current Pts	Goal Exp Pts	Form Exp Pts	Goal Finish	Form Finish	Goal Title	Form Title	Goal Top 4	Form Top 4	Goal Bottom Finish (17-18)	Form Bottom Finish (17-18)
1	Pusamania Borneo	79	79.0	79.0	1	1	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Persib Bandung	79	79.0	79.0	2	2	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Persija	71	71.0	71.0	3	3	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Persebaya Surabaya	58	60.1	60.4	4	4	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Malut United	53	53.0	53.0	6	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Bhayangkara FC	53	53.0	53.0	7	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Dewa United	53	55.0	55.3	5	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Bali United	51	51.0	51.0	8	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Arema FC	48	48.0	48.0	9	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Persita	45	45.0	45.0	10	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	PSIM Yogyakarta	45	45.0	45.0	11	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Persik Kediri	39	39.7	39.5	12	12	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Persijap	36	36.6	36.4	13	13	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Persepam Madura Utd	35	35.0	35.0	14	14	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	PSM Makassar	34	34.0	34.0	15	15	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Persis Solo	34	34.0	34.0	16	16	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	Semen Padang	20	20.0	20.0	17	17	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%
18	PSBS Biak Numfor	18	18.0	18.0	18	18	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date	Round	Match	Home	Draw	Away	Proj G H	Proj G A
28 Dec 2025	Regular Season - 8	Persebaya Surabaya vs Persijap	63.9%	21.7%	14.4%	1.87	0.75
07 Feb 2026	Regular Season - 20	Dewa United vs Persik Kediri	60.4%	22.2%	17.4%	1.87	0.89

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date	Round	Match	Home	Draw	Away	Home Form	Away Form
28 Dec 2025	Regular Season - 8	Persebaya Surabaya vs Persijap	73.3%	20.2%	6.5%	1.31	0.81
07 Feb 2026	Regular Season - 20	Dewa United vs Persik Kediri	71.0%	20.9%	8.1%	1.18	0.75