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Japan J2 League race map

Japan J2 League Season Predictor 2017-2018

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for J2 League. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.38 / 1.21
Form Model Base 1.37 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (21-22) Form Bottom Finish (21-22)
1 Shonan Bellmare 83 83.0 83.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 V-varen Nagasaki 80 80.0 80.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Nagoya Grampus 75 75.0 75.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Avispa Fukuoka 74 74.0 74.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Tokyo Verdy 70 70.0 70.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 JEF United Chiba 68 68.0 68.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Tokushima Vortis 67 67.0 67.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Matsumoto Yamaga 66 66.0 66.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Oita Trinita 64 64.0 64.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Yokohama FC 63 63.0 63.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Montedio Yamagata 59 59.0 59.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Kyoto Sanga 57 57.0 57.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Fagiano Okayama 55 55.0 55.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Mito Hollyhock 54 54.0 54.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Ehime FC 51 51.0 51.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Machida Zelvia 50 50.0 50.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Kanazawa 49 49.0 49.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 FC Gifu 46 46.0 46.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 Kamatamare Sanuki 38 38.0 38.0 19 19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 Renofa Yamaguchi 38 38.0 38.0 20 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 Roasso Kumamoto 37 37.0 37.0 21 21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
22 Thespakusatsu Gunma 20 20.0 20.0 22 22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.