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Japan J2 League race map

Japan J2 League Season Predictor 2020-2021

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Renofa Yamaguchi 22 33 22.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ehime FC 21 34 21.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 20 49 20.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Machida Zelvia 19 49 19.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kanazawa 18 49 18.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fagiano Okayama 17 50 17.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for J2 League. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.29 / 1.14
Form Model Base 1.37 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (21-22) Form Bottom Finish (21-22)
1 Tokushima Vortis 84 84.0 84.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Avispa Fukuoka 84 84.0 84.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 V-varen Nagasaki 80 80.0 80.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Ventforet Kofu 65 65.0 65.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Kitakyushu 65 65.0 65.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Jubilo Iwata 63 63.0 63.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Montedio Yamagata 62 62.0 62.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Kyoto Sanga 59 59.0 59.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Mito Hollyhock 58 58.0 58.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Tochigi SC 58 58.0 58.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Albirex Niigata 57 57.0 57.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Tokyo Verdy 54 54.0 54.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Matsumoto Yamaga 54 54.0 54.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 JEF United Chiba 53 53.0 53.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Omiya Ardija 53 53.0 53.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 FC Ryukyu 50 50.0 50.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Fagiano Okayama 50 50.0 50.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 Kanazawa 49 49.0 49.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 Machida Zelvia 49 49.0 49.0 19 19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 Thespakusatsu Gunma 49 49.0 49.0 20 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 Ehime FC 34 34.0 34.0 21 21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
22 Renofa Yamaguchi 33 33.0 33.0 22 22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.