Norway 1. Division race map

Norway 1. Division Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Haugesund
69.4% average title probability
Closest Challenger Kongsvinger
19.7% average title probability
Main Danger Team Raufoss
87.4% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Strommen
Gap score 30.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

2 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

2 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
Haugesund 1 52 66.6 69.4% 57.0% 81.7%
Kongsvinger 2 50 63.5 19.7% 26.0% 13.4%
Stromsgodset 3 48 61.4 9.8% 14.7% 4.8%
Stabaek 4 45 57.0 1.2% 2.3% 0.1%
ODD Ballklubb 5 36 45.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryne 6 35 45.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team Pos Avg Finish Avg Top 4 Avg Title Momentum
Haugesund 1 1.0 100.0% 69.4% +2.3
Kongsvinger 2 2.0 100.0% 19.7% +0.7
Stromsgodset 3 3.0 100.0% 9.8% -0.3
Stabaek 4 4.0 98.7% 1.2% -1.1
ODD Ballklubb 5 5.5 0.8% 0.0% -1.3
Bryne 6 5.5 0.6% 0.0% +1.5
hodd 7 7.0 0.1% 0.0% +0.9
Egersund 8 8.0 0.0% 0.0% -0.6

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Raufoss 16 19 16.0 87.4% 89.0% 85.8%
Asane 15 20 15.0 74.5% 67.1% 81.8%
Sandnes ULF 13 24 14.0 16.1% 14.3% 17.9%
Sogndal 14 23 13.0 11.3% 11.5% 11.0%
Strommen 12 25 12.5 6.9% 12.5% 1.2%
Moss 11 25 11.5 3.6% 5.0% 2.2%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Strommen 14 11 32.0 34.4 30.0
Haugesund 1 1 65.4 67.7 24.7
Asane 15 15 27.1 25.6 14.7
Kongsvinger 2 2 63.1 63.8 12.6
ODD Ballklubb 5 6 46.2 44.9 10.0
Bryne 6 5 45.1 46.6 10.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund 18 Oct 2026 224.3 46.1% 22.4% 31.5% Stromsgodset: Top 4 100.0% | Haugesund: Top 4 100.0%
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset 08 Nov 2026 224.0 43.8% 23.6% 32.7% Stabaek: Top 4 98.7% | Stromsgodset: Top 4 100.0%
Stromsgodset vs Kongsvinger 14 Oct 2026 223.0 49.0% 23.2% 27.9% Stromsgodset: Top 4 100.0% | Kongsvinger: Top 4 100.0%
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek 02 Nov 2026 218.4 56.3% 21.1% 22.7% Kongsvinger: Top 4 100.0% | Stabaek: Top 4 98.7%
Haugesund vs Stabaek 03 Oct 2026 216.7 60.1% 20.9% 19.1% Haugesund: Top 4 100.0% | Stabaek: Top 4 98.7%
Asane vs Stabaek 18 Oct 2026 192.5 21.1% 22.0% 57.1% Asane: Bottom Finish 74.5% | Stabaek: Top 4 98.7%
Asane vs Haugesund 01 Nov 2026 189.2 14.3% 18.4% 67.4% Asane: Bottom Finish 74.5% | Haugesund: Top 4 100.0%
Stromsgodset vs Asane 03 Oct 2026 184.2 78.4% 15.5% 6.1% Stromsgodset: Top 4 100.0% | Asane: Bottom Finish 74.5%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for 1. Division. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 56
Goal Model Base 2.13 / 1.72
Form Model Base 1.42 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (15-16) Form Bottom Finish (15-16)
1 Haugesund 52 65.4 67.7 1 1 57.0% 81.7% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Kongsvinger 50 63.1 63.8 2 2 26.0% 13.4% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Stromsgodset 48 61.5 61.2 3 3 14.7% 4.8% 99.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Stabaek 45 57.5 56.4 4 4 2.3% 0.1% 98.6% 98.7% 0.0% 0.0%
5 ODD Ballklubb 36 46.2 44.9 5 6 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Bryne 35 45.1 46.6 6 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
7 hodd 34 43.4 44.3 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Egersund 29 39.1 38.5 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
9 Ranheim 28 38.4 36.6 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
10 Lyn 28 37.2 36.7 10 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1%
11 Moss 25 33.7 33.7 11 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2.2%
12 Strommen 25 32.0 34.4 14 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 1.2%
13 Sandnes ULF 24 31.2 29.4 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 17.9%
14 Sogndal 23 31.9 31.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 11.0%
15 Asane 20 27.1 25.6 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 67.1% 81.8%
16 Raufoss 19 25.2 25.3 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 89.0% 85.8%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
02 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Ranheim vs Egersund 57.2% 17.4% 25.4% 2.87 1.95
03 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Strommen vs Sandnes ULF 37.4% 23.8% 38.7% 1.54 1.57
03 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Haugesund vs Stabaek 49.0% 20.9% 30.1% 2.11 1.63
03 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 hodd vs ODD Ballklubb 39.4% 21.8% 38.7% 1.82 1.81
03 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Stromsgodset vs Asane 77.3% 13.3% 9.4% 2.94 0.97
04 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Bryne vs Lyn 40.8% 24.5% 34.8% 1.54 1.41
05 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Moss vs Kongsvinger 18.5% 17.9% 63.6% 1.33 2.53
21 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Sogndal vs Raufoss 71.7% 14.8% 13.5% 2.97 1.28
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Asane vs Sogndal 51.9% 20.1% 28.0% 2.26 1.64
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Egersund vs hodd 48.6% 23.0% 28.4% 1.81 1.34
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Kongsvinger vs Ranheim 69.7% 13.7% 16.6% 3.60 1.88
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Lyn vs Stromsgodset 17.0% 16.3% 66.8% 1.42 2.83
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 ODD Ballklubb vs Bryne 49.4% 25.3% 25.3% 1.56 1.04
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Raufoss vs Moss 34.2% 22.5% 43.3% 1.60 1.82
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Sandnes ULF vs Haugesund 22.8% 17.9% 59.3% 1.66 2.67
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Stabaek vs Strommen 72.4% 14.6% 13.0% 2.97 1.24
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Strommen vs Asane 46.0% 22.6% 31.4% 1.84 1.49
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Bryne vs Raufoss 69.6% 17.1% 13.3% 2.47 0.99
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Haugesund vs Lyn 66.4% 16.6% 16.9% 2.74 1.36
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 hodd vs Ranheim 48.1% 19.5% 32.4% 2.37 1.94
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Moss vs Egersund 41.4% 21.4% 37.1% 1.93 1.82
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Sogndal vs ODD Ballklubb 37.8% 21.0% 41.2% 1.91 1.99
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Stabaek vs Sandnes ULF 69.9% 16.7% 13.4% 2.54 1.04
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Stromsgodset vs Kongsvinger 45.6% 21.6% 32.8% 1.97 1.65
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Egersund vs Sogndal 56.5% 20.9% 22.6% 2.10 1.26
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Stromsgodset vs Haugesund 49.6% 18.7% 31.7% 2.56 2.06
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Asane vs Stabaek 21.3% 19.6% 59.2% 1.33 2.30
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 hodd vs Raufoss 72.1% 15.1% 12.8% 2.84 1.16
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Kongsvinger vs Sandnes ULF 72.9% 14.3% 12.8% 3.03 1.27
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Lyn vs Moss 38.5% 20.5% 41.0% 2.01 2.08
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 ODD Ballklubb vs Strommen 63.2% 18.6% 18.2% 2.39 1.22
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Ranheim vs Bryne 42.5% 21.9% 35.6% 1.88 1.71
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Raufoss vs Ranheim 32.4% 20.6% 47.1% 1.78 2.16
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Strommen vs Stromsgodset 16.0% 16.7% 67.2% 1.27 2.67
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Haugesund vs hodd 74.5% 13.7% 11.8% 3.10 1.23
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Sandnes ULF vs Lyn 36.1% 23.4% 40.6% 1.55 1.66
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Bryne vs Egersund 50.0% 22.8% 27.2% 1.84 1.31
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Moss vs Asane 49.2% 21.7% 29.1% 1.98 1.49
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Sogndal vs Kongsvinger 24.6% 19.6% 55.7% 1.52 2.33
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb 61.7% 18.1% 20.2% 2.55 1.44
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Asane vs Haugesund 21.0% 16.1% 62.9% 1.84 3.09
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Egersund vs Strommen 49.4% 22.2% 28.5% 1.92 1.42
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 hodd vs Bryne 38.4% 25.7% 35.9% 1.39 1.33
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Lyn vs Raufoss 63.3% 17.3% 19.3% 2.68 1.47
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 ODD Ballklubb vs Sandnes ULF 61.0% 20.8% 18.2% 2.05 1.02
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Ranheim vs Sogndal 64.7% 15.7% 19.7% 3.15 1.79
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Stromsgodset vs Moss 70.3% 15.4% 14.3% 2.87 1.28
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Kongsvinger vs Stabaek 47.2% 19.9% 32.9% 2.28 1.90
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Bryne vs Kongsvinger 26.7% 23.0% 50.3% 1.27 1.82
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb 64.9% 16.6% 18.5% 2.82 1.50
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Moss vs Ranheim 37.1% 19.4% 43.5% 2.16 2.33
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Raufoss vs Egersund 36.4% 23.1% 40.5% 1.59 1.69
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sandnes ULF vs Asane 52.5% 22.3% 25.2% 1.91 1.26
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sogndal vs hodd 48.7% 21.0% 30.3% 2.09 1.63
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Stabaek vs Stromsgodset 45.9% 20.8% 33.2% 2.10 1.77
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Strommen vs Lyn 29.6% 21.9% 48.5% 1.50 1.96

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
02 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Ranheim vs Egersund 54.6% 24.3% 21.0% 0.85 0.76
03 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Strommen vs Sandnes ULF 64.5% 22.5% 13.0% 1.01 0.74
03 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Haugesund vs Stabaek 71.1% 20.9% 8.0% 1.57 1.14
03 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 hodd vs ODD Ballklubb 55.9% 24.1% 20.0% 1.10 0.99
03 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Stromsgodset vs Asane 79.5% 17.6% 2.8% 1.41 0.65
04 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Bryne vs Lyn 55.2% 24.2% 20.5% 1.08 0.98
05 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Moss vs Kongsvinger 15.2% 23.1% 61.8% 0.78 1.36
21 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 24 Sogndal vs Raufoss 61.7% 23.1% 15.3% 0.82 0.61
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Asane vs Sogndal 53.4% 24.5% 22.0% 0.69 0.62
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Egersund vs hodd 54.9% 24.3% 20.8% 0.94 0.85
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Kongsvinger vs Ranheim 75.6% 19.4% 5.0% 1.43 0.85
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Lyn vs Stromsgodset 21.4% 24.4% 54.2% 0.97 1.41
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 ODD Ballklubb vs Bryne 44.0% 25.9% 30.1% 1.07 1.15
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Raufoss vs Moss 34.9% 26.7% 38.4% 0.68 0.89
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Sandnes ULF vs Haugesund 9.0% 21.3% 69.8% 0.75 1.50
11 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 25 Stabaek vs Strommen 69.6% 21.3% 9.1% 1.31 0.92
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Strommen vs Asane 68.4% 21.6% 10.0% 1.01 0.65
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Bryne vs Raufoss 72.3% 20.5% 7.2% 1.08 0.61
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Haugesund vs Lyn 75.8% 19.3% 4.9% 1.57 0.98
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 hodd vs Ranheim 63.9% 22.6% 13.5% 1.10 0.85
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Moss vs Egersund 50.5% 25.0% 24.6% 0.78 0.76
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Sogndal vs ODD Ballklubb 37.1% 26.9% 36.0% 0.82 0.99
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Stabaek vs Sandnes ULF 75.2% 19.5% 5.2% 1.31 0.74
14 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 26 Stromsgodset vs Kongsvinger 52.3% 24.7% 23.0% 1.41 1.36
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Egersund vs Sogndal 66.9% 22.0% 11.1% 0.94 0.62
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Stromsgodset vs Haugesund 42.5% 26.1% 31.3% 1.41 1.50
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Asane vs Stabaek 20.8% 24.3% 54.9% 0.69 1.14
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 hodd vs Raufoss 73.0% 20.3% 6.7% 1.10 0.61
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Kongsvinger vs Sandnes ULF 78.1% 18.4% 3.6% 1.43 0.74
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Lyn vs Moss 54.7% 24.3% 21.0% 0.97 0.89
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 ODD Ballklubb vs Strommen 58.7% 23.6% 17.6% 1.07 0.92
18 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 Ranheim vs Bryne 29.4% 25.8% 44.8% 0.85 1.15
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Raufoss vs Ranheim 37.4% 26.9% 35.7% 0.68 0.85
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Strommen vs Stromsgodset 23.3% 24.8% 51.9% 1.01 1.41
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Haugesund vs hodd 78.8% 18.0% 3.2% 1.57 0.85
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Sandnes ULF vs Lyn 33.2% 26.5% 40.4% 0.75 0.98
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Bryne vs Egersund 66.6% 22.0% 11.3% 1.08 0.76
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Moss vs Asane 57.4% 23.9% 18.8% 0.78 0.65
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Sogndal vs Kongsvinger 16.8% 23.5% 59.7% 0.82 1.36
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 28 Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb 66.6% 22.1% 11.4% 1.31 0.99
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Asane vs Haugesund 7.5% 20.7% 71.9% 0.69 1.50
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Egersund vs Strommen 50.6% 25.0% 24.5% 0.94 0.92
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 hodd vs Bryne 45.9% 25.7% 28.5% 1.10 1.15
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Lyn vs Raufoss 68.6% 21.6% 9.9% 0.97 0.61
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 ODD Ballklubb vs Sandnes ULF 67.3% 21.9% 10.8% 1.07 0.74
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Ranheim vs Sogndal 62.6% 22.9% 14.5% 0.85 0.62
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Stromsgodset vs Moss 73.9% 20.0% 6.1% 1.41 0.89
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Kongsvinger vs Stabaek 65.3% 22.3% 12.4% 1.43 1.14
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Bryne vs Kongsvinger 30.5% 26.0% 43.5% 1.08 1.36
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb 75.5% 19.4% 5.1% 1.57 0.99
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Moss vs Ranheim 44.7% 25.8% 29.4% 0.78 0.85
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Raufoss vs Egersund 43.4% 26.0% 30.6% 0.68 0.76
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sandnes ULF vs Asane 55.1% 24.2% 20.6% 0.75 0.65
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sogndal vs hodd 47.1% 25.5% 27.4% 0.82 0.85
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Stabaek vs Stromsgodset 41.7% 26.3% 32.1% 1.31 1.41
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Strommen vs Lyn 51.0% 24.9% 24.1% 1.01 0.98