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Portugal Liga Portugal race map

Portugal Liga Portugal Season Predictor 2016-2017

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Benfica
100.0% average title probability
Closest Challenger FC Porto
0.0% average title probability
Main Danger Team Nacional
100.0% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Benfica
Gap score 0.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
Benfica 1 82 82.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
FC Porto 2 76 76.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sporting CP 3 70 70.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Guimaraes 4 62 62.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SC Braga 5 54 54.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maritimo 6 50 50.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team Pos Avg Finish Avg Top 4 Avg Title Momentum
Benfica 1 1.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.0
FC Porto 2 2.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Sporting CP 3 3.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Guimaraes 4 4.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
SC Braga 5 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Maritimo 6 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Rio Ave 7 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Feirense 8 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Nacional 18 21 18.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Arouca 17 32 17.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tondela 16 32 16.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Moreirense 15 33 15.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belenenses 14 36 14.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacos Ferreira 13 36 13.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Benfica 1 1 82.0 82.0 0.0
FC Porto 2 2 76.0 76.0 0.0
Sporting CP 3 3 70.0 70.0 0.0
Guimaraes 4 4 62.0 62.0 0.0
SC Braga 5 5 54.0 54.0 0.0
Maritimo 6 6 50.0 50.0 0.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga Portugal. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.38 / 1
Form Model Base 1.37 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (17-18) Form Bottom Finish (17-18)
1 Benfica 82 82.0 82.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 FC Porto 76 76.0 76.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Sporting CP 70 70.0 70.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Guimaraes 62 62.0 62.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 SC Braga 54 54.0 54.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Maritimo 50 50.0 50.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Rio Ave 49 49.0 49.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Feirense 48 48.0 48.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Boavista 43 43.0 43.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Estoril 38 38.0 38.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Chaves 38 38.0 38.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Vitoria Setubal 38 38.0 38.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Pacos Ferreira 36 36.0 36.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Belenenses 36 36.0 36.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Moreirense 33 33.0 33.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Tondela 32 32.0 32.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Arouca 32 32.0 32.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
18 Nacional 21 21.0 21.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.