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Portugal Liga Portugal race map

Portugal Liga Portugal Season Predictor 2022-2023

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Benfica
100.0% average title probability
Closest Challenger FC Porto
0.0% average title probability
Main Danger Team Santa Clara
100.0% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Benfica
Gap score 0.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
Benfica 1 87 87.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
FC Porto 2 85 85.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SC Braga 3 78 78.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sporting CP 4 74 74.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arouca 5 54 54.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Guimaraes 6 53 53.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team Pos Avg Finish Avg Top 4 Avg Title Momentum
Benfica 1 1.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.0
FC Porto 2 2.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
SC Braga 3 3.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Sporting CP 4 4.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Arouca 5 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Guimaraes 6 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Chaves 7 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Famalicao 8 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Santa Clara 18 22 18.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Pacos Ferreira 17 23 17.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Maritimo 16 26 16.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portimonense 15 34 15.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Estoril 14 35 14.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
GIL Vicente 13 37 13.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Benfica 1 1 87.0 87.0 0.0
FC Porto 2 2 85.0 85.0 0.0
SC Braga 3 3 78.0 78.0 0.0
Sporting CP 4 4 74.0 74.0 0.0
Arouca 5 5 54.0 54.0 0.0
Guimaraes 6 6 53.0 53.0 0.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga Portugal. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.42 / 1.08
Form Model Base 1.41 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (17-18) Form Bottom Finish (17-18)
1 Benfica 87 87.0 87.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 FC Porto 85 85.0 85.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 SC Braga 78 78.0 78.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Sporting CP 74 74.0 74.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Arouca 54 54.0 54.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Guimaraes 53 53.0 53.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Chaves 46 46.0 46.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Famalicao 44 44.0 44.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Boavista 44 44.0 44.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Casa Pia 41 41.0 41.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Vizela 40 40.0 40.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Rio Ave 40 40.0 40.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 GIL Vicente 37 37.0 37.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Estoril 35 35.0 35.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Portimonense 34 34.0 34.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Maritimo 26 26.0 26.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Pacos Ferreira 23 23.0 23.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
18 Santa Clara 22 22.0 22.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.