FIXTURES
LIVESCORES
NEWS

Portugal Liga Portugal 2 race map

Portugal Liga Portugal 2 Season Predictor 2021-2022

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Rio Ave
100.0% average title probability
Closest Challenger Casa Pia
0.0% average title probability
Main Danger Team Academica
100.0% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Rio Ave
Gap score 0.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
Rio Ave 1 70 70.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Casa Pia 2 68 68.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chaves 3 64 64.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Feirense 4 58 58.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Benfica B 5 57 57.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nacional 6 51 51.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team Pos Avg Finish Avg Top 4 Avg Title Momentum
Rio Ave 1 1.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.0
Casa Pia 2 2.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Chaves 3 3.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Feirense 4 4.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0
Benfica B 5 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Nacional 6 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Penafiel 7 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Leixoes 8 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Academica 18 17 18.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Varzim 17 35 17.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SC Covilha 16 36 16.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Academico Viseu 15 37 15.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Estrela 14 37 14.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Trofense 13 40 13.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Rio Ave 1 1 70.0 70.0 0.0
Casa Pia 2 2 68.0 68.0 0.0
Chaves 3 3 64.0 64.0 0.0
Feirense 4 4 58.0 58.0 0.0
Benfica B 5 5 57.0 57.0 0.0
Nacional 6 6 51.0 51.0 0.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga Portugal 2. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.35 / 1.14
Form Model Base 1.37 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (17-18) Form Bottom Finish (17-18)
1 Rio Ave 70 70.0 70.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Casa Pia 68 68.0 68.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Chaves 64 64.0 64.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Feirense 58 58.0 58.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Benfica B 57 57.0 57.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Nacional 51 51.0 51.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Penafiel 51 51.0 51.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Leixoes 48 48.0 48.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Mafra 43 43.0 43.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 FC Porto B 42 42.0 42.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Farense 41 41.0 41.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Vilafranquense 41 41.0 41.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Trofense 40 40.0 40.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Estrela 37 37.0 37.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Academico Viseu 37 37.0 37.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 SC Covilha 36 36.0 36.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Varzim 35 35.0 35.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
18 Academica 17 17.0 17.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.