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Tunisia Ligue 1 race map

Tunisia Ligue 1 Season Predictor 2025-2026

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite ES Tunis
91.2% average title probability
Closest Challenger Club Africain
4.6% average title probability
Biggest Model Split CS Sfaxien
Gap score 10.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

3 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

2 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Olympique Béja 16 8 16.0 98.3% 98.3% 98.2%
AS Gabes 15 8 15.0 78.2% 79.6% 76.7%
AS Soliman 14 10 14.0 23.4% 21.9% 24.9%
JS Kairouanaise 13 13 13.0 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
AS Marsa 12 14 11.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CA Bizertin 11 15 10.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
CS Sfaxien 5 4 22.9 23.4 10.0
CA Bizertin 10 11 17.5 17.3 10.0
ES Zarzis 4 4 24.0 24.0 6.1
AS Soliman 14 14 12.2 12.2 3.0
AS Gabes 15 15 9.9 10.0 2.9
Stade Tunisien 2 2 30.7 31.1 2.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
Club Africain vs ES Tunis 09 Nov 2025 227.0 31.4% 28.7% 39.9% Club Africain: Top 4 100.0% | ES Tunis: Top 4 100.0%
Olympique Béja vs Club Africain 22 Nov 2025 210.7 7.3% 20.2% 72.5% Olympique Béja: Bottom Finish 98.3% | Club Africain: Top 4 100.0%
Stade Tunisien vs AS Gabes 22 Nov 2025 189.5 74.8% 20.6% 4.6% Stade Tunisien: Top 4 100.0% | AS Gabes: Bottom Finish 78.2%
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien 09 Nov 2025 128.3 29.0% 34.0% 37.2% US Ben Guerdane: Projection 0.0% | Stade Tunisien: Top 4 100.0%
AS Gabes vs AS Soliman 08 Nov 2025 127.7 42.1% 31.4% 26.6% AS Gabes: Bottom Finish 78.2% | AS Soliman: Bottom Finish 23.4%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja 10 Nov 2025 112.3 69.0% 21.9% 9.2% Jeunesse Sportive Omrane: Projection 0.0% | Olympique Béja: Bottom Finish 98.3%
ES Tunis vs US Ben Guerdane 22 Nov 2025 112.2 72.9% 21.2% 5.9% ES Tunis: Top 4 100.0% | US Ben Guerdane: Projection 0.0%
AS Soliman vs US Monastirienne 22 Nov 2025 77.7 26.2% 33.4% 40.5% AS Soliman: Bottom Finish 23.4% | US Monastirienne: Top 4 27.5%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Ligue 1. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 16
Goal Model Base 0.99 / 0.8
Form Model Base 1.35 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (15-16) Form Bottom Finish (15-16)
1 ES Tunis 30 34.0 33.8 1 1 91.6% 90.8% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Stade Tunisien 27 30.7 31.1 2 2 3.5% 4.9% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Club Africain 27 30.4 30.8 3 3 4.9% 4.3% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 ES Zarzis 21 24.0 24.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 36.9% 30.8% 0.0% 0.0%
5 CS Sfaxien 20 22.9 23.4 5 4 0.0% 0.0% 23.2% 28.3% 0.0% 0.0%
6 US Monastirienne 20 23.7 23.9 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 27.9% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0%
7 ES Metlaoui 19 21.7 22.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0%
8 ES Sahel 18 20.5 20.8 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 16 19.1 19.1 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 US Ben Guerdane 15 16.7 16.5 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 CA Bizertin 15 17.5 17.3 10 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 AS Marsa 14 16.9 16.5 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 JS Kairouanaise 13 14.9 14.9 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
14 AS Soliman 10 12.2 12.2 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.9% 24.9%
15 AS Gabes 8 9.9 10.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79.6% 76.7%
16 Olympique Béja 8 8.9 8.9 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.3% 98.2%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
08 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 CA Bizertin vs ES Sahel 38.2% 32.0% 29.8% 1.01 0.86
08 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 CS Sfaxien vs AS Marsa 41.3% 29.0% 29.7% 1.21 0.98
08 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 AS Gabes vs AS Soliman 35.0% 37.6% 27.4% 0.78 0.65
08 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 US Monastirienne vs JS Kairouanaise 61.7% 25.7% 12.7% 1.51 0.52
09 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien 25.8% 41.7% 32.6% 0.55 0.66
09 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 Club Africain vs ES Tunis 22.1% 31.0% 46.9% 0.70 1.16
09 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis 31.6% 30.6% 37.8% 0.95 1.07
10 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja 65.7% 23.2% 11.1% 1.68 0.52
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien 32.8% 30.7% 36.5% 0.97 1.04
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 Olympique Béja vs Club Africain 5.8% 19.2% 75.0% 0.33 1.86
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 AS Soliman vs US Monastirienne 21.3% 40.6% 38.1% 0.48 0.75
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 JS Kairouanaise vs ES Metlaoui 33.2% 29.9% 37.0% 1.02 1.09
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 ES Tunis vs US Ben Guerdane 67.5% 24.2% 8.3% 1.56 0.36
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 Stade Tunisien vs AS Gabes 68.8% 24.2% 7.0% 1.53 0.30
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 AS Marsa vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 45.7% 35.6% 18.6% 0.97 0.50
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 ES Zarzis vs CA Bizertin 39.3% 39.6% 21.1% 0.79 0.50

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
08 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 CA Bizertin vs ES Sahel 42.2% 26.2% 31.6% 0.97 1.07
08 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 CS Sfaxien vs AS Marsa 68.6% 21.6% 9.9% 1.19 0.83
08 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 AS Gabes vs AS Soliman 49.1% 25.2% 25.7% 0.68 0.68
08 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 US Monastirienne vs JS Kairouanaise 71.1% 20.9% 8.0% 1.16 0.73
09 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien 32.1% 26.3% 41.7% 1.01 1.27
09 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 Club Africain vs ES Tunis 40.7% 26.4% 32.9% 1.31 1.43
09 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis 48.9% 25.2% 25.9% 1.14 1.15
10 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 14 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja 72.2% 20.6% 7.3% 1.08 0.62
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien 43.3% 26.0% 30.7% 1.07 1.15
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 Olympique Béja vs Club Africain 8.8% 21.2% 70.0% 0.64 1.40
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 AS Soliman vs US Monastirienne 31.1% 26.1% 42.8% 0.72 0.99
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 JS Kairouanaise vs ES Metlaoui 40.7% 26.4% 32.9% 0.83 0.95
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 ES Tunis vs US Ben Guerdane 78.3% 18.2% 3.4% 1.62 0.92
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 Stade Tunisien vs AS Gabes 80.8% 16.9% 2.2% 1.39 0.56
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 AS Marsa vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 59.8% 23.4% 16.7% 0.95 0.77
22 Nov 2025 Regular Season - 15 ES Zarzis vs CA Bizertin 57.5% 23.9% 18.7% 0.92 0.78