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Turkey Super Lig race map

Turkey Super Lig Season Predictor 2020-2021

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Beşiktaş
100.0% average title probability
Closest Challenger Galatasaray
0.0% average title probability
Main Danger Team Denizlispor
100.0% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Beşiktaş
Gap score 0.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
Beşiktaş 1 84 84.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Galatasaray 2 84 84.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fenerbahçe 3 82 82.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Trabzonspor 4 71 71.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sivasspor 5 65 65.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hatayspor 6 61 61.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Denizlispor 21 28 21.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 20 38 20.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ankaragucu 19 38 19.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Erzurumspor FK 18 40 18.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kayserispor 17 41 17.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Antalyaspor 16 44 16.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Beşiktaş 1 1 84.0 84.0 0.0
Galatasaray 2 2 84.0 84.0 0.0
Fenerbahçe 3 3 82.0 82.0 0.0
Trabzonspor 4 4 71.0 71.0 0.0
Sivasspor 5 5 65.0 65.0 0.0
Hatayspor 6 6 61.0 61.0 0.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

No remaining fixtures are available for a race-heat watchlist.

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Super Lig. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 1
Remaining Fixtures 0
Goal Model Base 1.5 / 1.2
Form Model Base 1.36 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (20-21) Form Bottom Finish (20-21)
1 Beşiktaş 84 84.0 84.0 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Galatasaray 84 84.0 84.0 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Fenerbahçe 82 82.0 82.0 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Trabzonspor 71 71.0 71.0 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Sivasspor 65 65.0 65.0 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Hatayspor 61 61.0 61.0 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Alanyaspor 60 60.0 60.0 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Fatih Karagümrük 60 60.0 60.0 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Gaziantep FK 58 58.0 58.0 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Göztepe 51 51.0 51.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Konyaspor 50 50.0 50.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Başakşehir 48 48.0 48.0 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Rizespor 48 48.0 48.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Kasımpaşa 46 46.0 46.0 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Yeni Malatyaspor 45 45.0 45.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Antalyaspor 44 44.0 44.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Kayserispor 41 41.0 41.0 17 17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 Erzurumspor FK 40 40.0 40.0 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 Ankaragucu 38 38.0 38.0 19 19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 Gençlerbirliği S.K. 38 38.0 38.0 20 20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
21 Denizlispor 28 28.0 28.0 21 21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the goal-strength model.

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

There are no remaining fixtures to simulate for the points-form model.