USA MLS race map

USA MLS Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Nashville SC
100.0% average title probability

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

3 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC 24 Oct 2026 216.4 15.8% 24.0% 60.3% CF Montreal: Bottom Finish 98.5% | Nashville SC: Title 100.0%
CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps 07 Nov 2026 212.4 17.9% 22.9% 59.3% CF Montreal: Bottom Finish 98.5% | Vancouver Whitecaps: Top 4 95.6%
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas 31 Oct 2026 161.2 21.9% 21.8% 56.3% Sporting Kansas City: Bottom Finish 99.8% | FC Dallas: Top 4 41.7%
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami 02 Nov 2026 138.8 46.8% 23.7% 29.7% New England Revolution: Top 4 23.4% | Inter Miami: Top 4 91.5%
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin 25 Oct 2026 127.0 40.7% 24.5% 34.9% Sporting Kansas City: Bottom Finish 99.8% | Austin: Projection 0.0%
Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps 25 Oct 2026 122.3 33.2% 26.3% 40.6% Colorado Rapids: Projection 0.0% | Vancouver Whitecaps: Top 4 95.6%
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC 07 Nov 2026 120.7 23.2% 23.0% 53.9% FC Cincinnati: Projection 0.0% | Nashville SC: Title 100.0%
New York City FC vs CF Montreal 31 Oct 2026 116.8 59.4% 21.8% 18.9% New York City FC: Projection 0.0% | CF Montreal: Bottom Finish 98.5%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for MLS. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 60
Goal Model Base 1.84 / 1.41
Form Model Base 1.37 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (29-30) Form Bottom Finish (29-30)
1 Nashville SC 67 75.5 75.9 1 1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Vancouver Whitecaps 55 62.7 63.1 2 2 0.0% 0.0% 95.5% 95.7% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Inter Miami 55 62.4 62.1 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 92.6% 90.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 New England Revolution 52 57.7 57.8 5 6 0.0% 0.0% 28.2% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0%
5 St. Louis City 51 57.7 58.5 4 5 0.0% 0.0% 36.7% 37.8% 0.0% 0.0%
6 FC Dallas 51 57.8 59.5 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 31.8% 51.6% 0.0% 0.0%
7 San Jose Earthquakes 48 54.6 54.8 8 7 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Chicago Fire 48 54.7 54.5 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Charlotte 47 53.7 53.7 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Houston Dynamo 47 52.6 52.4 12 11 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Los Angeles FC 46 51.5 50.9 11 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Philadelphia Union 46 51.8 52.5 12 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Seattle Sounders 42 46.9 47.9 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Orlando City SC 41 45.5 46.4 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Los Angeles Galaxy 40 43.5 44.0 16 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Colorado Rapids 39 43.7 43.0 15 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Real Salt Lake 36 41.5 40.9 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 Toronto FC 36 40.7 40.5 22 21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 FC Cincinnati 36 42.0 41.3 18 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 New York Red Bulls 36 39.4 39.4 24 22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 Columbus Crew 35 40.6 40.8 19 18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 New York City FC 34 40.5 38.5 20 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
23 San Diego 34 39.2 38.5 24 24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 Portland Timbers 34 39.1 38.2 25 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
25 Minnesota United FC 34 39.1 38.6 25 25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
26 DC United 33 38.9 38.7 26 26 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
27 Austin 31 36.3 36.3 28 28 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2%
28 Atlanta United FC 30 35.0 35.3 28 28 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.7%
29 CF Montreal 25 27.9 27.5 29 29 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.8% 99.2%
30 Sporting Kansas City 22 25.5 25.6 30 30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.8% 99.8%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
21 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 23 FC Cincinnati vs DC United 53.3% 19.5% 27.2% 2.38 1.69
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 CF Montreal vs Nashville SC 18.5% 25.4% 56.1% 0.77 1.56
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC 51.5% 25.1% 23.4% 1.59 0.98
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami 22.4% 18.8% 58.7% 1.49 2.45
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Orlando City SC vs New York City FC 44.5% 24.4% 31.1% 1.61 1.30
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 DC United vs FC Cincinnati 43.2% 21.0% 35.8% 2.04 1.85
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution 49.5% 23.3% 27.2% 1.77 1.25
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire 28.6% 22.7% 48.7% 1.37 1.85
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC 48.3% 23.7% 28.0% 1.72 1.25
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes 36.8% 23.7% 39.5% 1.53 1.60
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Sporting Kansas City vs Austin 41.0% 22.4% 36.5% 1.78 1.67
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps 32.7% 26.0% 41.4% 1.23 1.42
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City 39.0% 24.2% 36.8% 1.54 1.49
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 San Diego vs Seattle Sounders 42.1% 24.9% 33.0% 1.53 1.32
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Portland Timbers vs Charlotte 44.0% 21.3% 34.7% 1.99 1.75
26 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy 62.6% 20.7% 16.7% 2.03 0.94
28 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati 70.1% 13.7% 16.2% 3.57 1.83
28 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC 48.8% 24.9% 26.3% 1.60 1.11
28 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls 58.4% 22.2% 19.3% 1.88 0.98
28 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Charlotte vs CF Montreal 69.9% 17.0% 13.2% 2.48 0.99
28 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Toronto FC vs DC United 48.1% 21.7% 30.2% 1.98 1.54
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union 70.4% 15.6% 14.0% 2.81 1.22
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew 49.4% 21.7% 28.8% 1.98 1.48
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC 65.0% 16.3% 18.7% 2.92 1.58
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City 63.1% 19.6% 17.3% 2.20 1.07
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Austin vs Real Salt Lake 41.6% 25.4% 33.1% 1.47 1.29
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers 62.1% 18.9% 19.0% 2.37 1.25
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego 69.2% 17.4% 13.3% 2.41 0.96
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo 41.0% 25.7% 33.4% 1.44 1.27
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids 51.7% 24.2% 24.1% 1.68 1.07
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Charlotte vs Orlando City SC 68.3% 15.5% 16.2% 2.99 1.47
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union 38.4% 18.0% 43.6% 2.54 2.69
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Columbus Crew vs DC United 50.1% 24.6% 25.3% 1.63 1.09
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 New York City FC vs CF Montreal 62.6% 19.4% 18.0% 2.25 1.13
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas 22.2% 19.2% 58.6% 1.43 2.38
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 St. Louis City vs San Diego 61.6% 19.3% 19.0% 2.29 1.21
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin 53.2% 23.2% 23.6% 1.79 1.12
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake 50.3% 23.2% 26.5% 1.79 1.24
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire 46.7% 24.4% 28.9% 1.63 1.23
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls 78.5% 13.7% 7.8% 2.69 0.74
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders 56.4% 24.9% 18.7% 1.61 0.81
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC 40.2% 25.3% 34.5% 1.46 1.33
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 New England Revolution vs Inter Miami 41.1% 22.6% 36.4% 1.76 1.65
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC 61.1% 19.9% 18.9% 2.19 1.14
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo 43.0% 22.8% 34.2% 1.77 1.56
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Inter Miami vs Charlotte 55.9% 18.5% 25.6% 2.58 1.75
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC 24.3% 21.5% 54.2% 1.29 2.02
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC 59.7% 21.8% 18.4% 1.92 0.96
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC 37.4% 25.3% 37.3% 1.40 1.40
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps 19.3% 22.3% 58.4% 0.98 1.88
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew 51.2% 22.0% 26.8% 1.95 1.36
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution 43.9% 22.4% 33.7% 1.83 1.58
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 DC United vs New York City FC 32.1% 26.8% 41.1% 1.16 1.35
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 36.0% 27.9% 36.1% 1.18 1.18
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 52.5% 21.8% 25.7% 1.98 1.33
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids 54.0% 23.4% 22.6% 1.77 1.06
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Austin vs Portland Timbers 42.7% 23.7% 33.6% 1.66 1.45
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City 73.9% 13.9% 12.2% 3.09 1.25
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes 28.8% 24.5% 46.7% 1.22 1.62
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City 38.3% 27.7% 34.0% 1.24 1.15

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
21 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 23 FC Cincinnati vs DC United 60.2% 23.4% 16.5% 0.93 0.75
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 CF Montreal vs Nashville SC 13.0% 22.5% 64.5% 0.73 1.36
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC 63.1% 22.8% 14.1% 1.12 0.88
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami 25.3% 25.1% 49.6% 0.87 1.24
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Orlando City SC vs New York City FC 71.1% 20.9% 8.0% 1.21 0.78
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 DC United vs FC Cincinnati 56.3% 24.1% 19.7% 0.90 0.78
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution 58.6% 23.6% 17.7% 1.32 1.16
24 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire 33.5% 26.5% 40.0% 0.78 1.01
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC 61.7% 23.1% 15.2% 1.05 0.84
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes 58.7% 23.6% 17.7% 1.27 1.12
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Sporting Kansas City vs Austin 40.3% 26.5% 33.3% 0.67 0.80
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps 33.6% 26.5% 39.8% 1.05 1.28
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City 37.6% 26.8% 35.5% 1.00 1.16
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 San Diego vs Seattle Sounders 43.2% 26.0% 30.7% 0.90 0.99
25 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Portland Timbers vs Charlotte 35.4% 26.8% 37.8% 0.86 1.06
26 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 31 Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy 59.0% 23.6% 17.4% 1.12 0.96
28 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati 72.5% 20.5% 7.0% 1.26 0.78
28 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC 35.2% 26.8% 38.0% 0.73 0.94
28 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls 69.0% 21.5% 9.5% 1.29 0.92
28 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Charlotte vs CF Montreal 74.8% 19.7% 5.5% 1.17 0.62
28 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Toronto FC vs DC United 64.5% 22.5% 13.0% 1.02 0.75
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union 70.8% 21.0% 8.2% 1.68 1.26
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew 66.3% 22.1% 11.6% 1.27 0.96
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC 62.2% 23.0% 14.8% 1.11 0.89
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City 62.0% 23.0% 15.0% 0.83 0.62
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Austin vs Real Salt Lake 45.1% 25.8% 29.1% 0.73 0.79
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers 77.4% 18.6% 3.9% 1.31 0.66
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego 73.4% 20.2% 6.4% 1.24 0.74
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo 60.8% 23.3% 16.0% 1.11 0.91
29 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 32 San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids 68.2% 21.7% 10.1% 1.09 0.74
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Charlotte vs Orlando City SC 65.1% 22.4% 12.5% 1.17 0.89
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union 27.5% 25.5% 47.0% 0.93 1.26
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Columbus Crew vs DC United 68.8% 21.5% 9.7% 1.12 0.75
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 New York City FC vs CF Montreal 56.1% 24.1% 19.8% 0.73 0.62
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas 21.6% 24.4% 53.9% 0.67 1.10
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 St. Louis City vs San Diego 75.4% 19.5% 5.1% 1.31 0.74
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin 67.5% 21.8% 10.7% 1.13 0.80
31 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake 66.0% 22.2% 11.8% 1.09 0.79
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire 51.9% 24.8% 23.3% 1.05 1.01
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls 79.7% 17.6% 2.7% 1.68 0.92
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders 64.0% 22.6% 13.4% 1.24 0.99
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC 42.1% 26.2% 31.7% 0.78 0.88
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 New England Revolution vs Inter Miami 52.4% 24.7% 22.9% 1.29 1.24
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC 65.2% 22.4% 12.4% 1.12 0.84
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 33 Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo 45.1% 25.8% 29.1% 0.86 0.91
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Inter Miami vs Charlotte 61.1% 23.2% 15.7% 1.26 1.06
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC 22.0% 24.5% 53.5% 0.93 1.36
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC 71.5% 20.8% 7.8% 1.32 0.88
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC 44.8% 25.8% 29.4% 0.87 0.94
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps 16.4% 23.4% 60.2% 0.73 1.28
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew 58.3% 23.7% 18.0% 1.11 0.96
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution 52.3% 24.7% 23.0% 1.21 1.16
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 DC United vs New York City FC 56.5% 24.0% 19.5% 0.90 0.78
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 61.7% 23.1% 15.2% 1.11 0.90
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 51.5% 24.8% 23.7% 1.00 0.96
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids 74.3% 19.9% 5.8% 1.27 0.74
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Austin vs Portland Timbers 54.0% 24.4% 21.6% 0.73 0.66
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City 65.3% 22.3% 12.4% 0.90 0.62
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes 30.3% 26.0% 43.8% 0.83 1.12
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 34 Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City 41.3% 26.3% 32.4% 1.05 1.16